Insights

A Slow-Tech Approach to Tracking Spending

Ten years ago, I tracked every penny of our family’s spending. That’s good, right? Over time, however, I lost sight of why I was doing it and eventually stopped. Recently, I decided to try it again, and I find myself having the same mental conversation every time I sit down with my receipts. “I don’t…

The Efficient Market Hypothesis, Fact Or Fiction? Part 4

Today concludes our four-part series on the efficient market hypothesis. While the EMH helps us understand how markets work, in terms of investment strategy it really doesn’t matter whether markets are efficient or not. The only thing that really matters is whether you can exploit inefficiencies persistently, after the expenses of the effort. That has proven to be extremely…

Do Dividends Lower Stock Prices?

There are many investors who have a hard time accepting the fact that when a company pays a dividend the payment results in a permanent relatively lower price (relative to what the price would have been the dividend had not been paid), not just a lower price on the day it makes the distribution. The problem results…

May, The Silly Season, Is Upon Us

One of the more persistent investment myths is that the winning strategy is to sell stocks in May and wait to buy back until November. While it is true that stocks have provided greater returns from November through April than they have from May through October, since 1926 there has still been an equity risk…

Value Premium And Distress Risk

While there are many studies demonstrating a link between the value premium and risk, the empirical evidence draws inconsistent conclusions on whether distress risk is a systematic risk factor that is priced in the cross section of stock returns. There are studies that conclude that default risk is positively priced in the stock market, and…

Hard To Time Outperformance

The efficient market hypothesis asserts that financial markets are “informationally efficient”; that is, investors shouldn’t expect to consistently achieve returns in excess of average market returns on a risk-adjusted basis, given the information available at the time the investment is made. However, we know that the market isn’t perfectly efficient. In fact, as I explained in my Seeking Alpha series on…

Accessing the Profitability Factor

A June 2012 study by Robert Novy-Marx, “The Other Side of Value: The Gross Profitability Premium,” provides investors with new insights into the cross section of stock returns. Among the important findings were: Profitability, as measured by gross profits-to-assets—gross profits being sales minus cost of goods sold—has roughly the same power as book-to-market (a value…

4 Alternatives to Reverse Mortgages

You may be all too familiar with commercials featuring folksy celebrities explaining how everyone tells him that reverse mortgages sound “too good to be true,” but there isn’t a catch this time. You can have the best of both worlds: You can stay in your home and get cash for the equity you have built…

Investors Should Look Out for Conflicts of Interest

In his new book, “Negotiating Your Investments,” Steven G. Blum discusses some of the traps investors confront when they seek financial advice. This book contains a wealth of helpful information, but I am going to focus on two areas of particular interest: conflicts of interest and asymmetric information. They are inextricably intertwined and present formidable…

A Tale of Two Investors

This is a tale of two fictional investors, Paul and Mary. They approach investing very differently. I suspect you will be able to identify with one of them, and perhaps learn something from both. Both Paul and Mary are deeply troubled by market volatility. They are still scarred by the market crash in 2008-2009. They…

The Illogic of Active Trading

Individual investors have been busy the last few months. TD Ameritrade saw a 30 percent jump in daily trading volume compared with the same period last year. Other discount brokers reported a similar increase in daily trading volume. I spoke to TD Ameritrade, and it said this number represented a broad-based increase in trading. The number of…

Seven Tips for Stock Traders Determined to Defy the Odds

Last week, I wrote about the documented evidence that trading activity results in lower returns to investors. This is equally true for those people we think of as professional investors and for people day trading in their parents’ basements. As far as I’m aware, there’s no peer-reviewed, academic study that shows any evidence that active trading will…