Scoring 2015’s ‘Sure Things’

At the start of 2015, I put together a list of predictions that financial “gurus” had made for the upcoming year, especially the ones that gained consensus as “sure things.” I then kept track, through a series of periodic updates, of whether these “sure thing” forecasts actually came to pass.

Well, the inevitable turn of the calendar into 2016 means that the most recent data is in, and it’s now time for our final review of the “sure thing” forecasts made back at the beginning of last year. As is our practice, we’ll give a score of +1 for a prediction that came true, a score of -1 for one that was wrong, and a score of 0 for one that’s basically a tie.

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