Forecast Follies, 2015 Edition

I like to keep track of the financial forecasts people make for an upcoming year, especially the ones that gain consensus as “sure things.” Sometimes it seems like too few are willing to hold the financial media—or the “gurus” who appear in it—accountable for their predictions, which is a shame.

The critical point to remember, as an investor, is that an overwhelming amount of academic, peer-reviewed evidence clearly demonstrates there are no good forecasters.

A “sure thing” can make my list either because one of the proverbial “gurus” is making the forecast or because I’ve repeatedly been asked to address the issue or concern by clients or by my fellow advisors. We keep track of whether the events “sure” to occur each year actually have come to pass through a review at the end of each quarter. Here’s my list of sure things I’ve been hearing for 2015.

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