Foxes More Right Than Hedgehogs
Philip Tetlock, who teaches psychology, business and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, is also the author of “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?” The book, which was published in 2006, discusses the findings of his 20-year study, the first scientific study on the ability of experts from various fields to predict the future.
Tetlock found that the so-called experts who make prediction their business (those who appear frequently as experts on television and talk radio, are quoted in the press and advise governments and businesses) are no better than the proverbial chimps throwing darts.
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