Gurus More Right Than Wrong In 3Q

Every January, I put together a list of predictions that financial “gurus” have made for the upcoming year, especially the ones that gain consensus as “sure things.” I then keep track of whether these “sure thing” forecasts actually came to pass, through a series of periodic updates.

The inevitable turn of the calendar into October means that it’s time for our third-quarter review. As is our practice, we give a score of +1 for a prediction that came true, a score of -1 for one that was wrong, and a score of 0 for one that’s basically a tie.

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